Quality-adjusted price trends
The of actual transactions rises and falls with the mix of building age, area and distance to the station of the properties traded in a quarter. Here we show the converted to a “reference property” with that mix held constant, by quarter over 10 years. These are estimates from a statistical model, not the actual transaction prices themselves.
Used condominiums
Reference property: 60㎡ floor area, 20 years old, 8-min walk to station, residential zoning
View as table
| Quarter | Tokyo | Kanagawa | Saitama | Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | ¥1,059,863/㎡ | ¥594,438/㎡ | ¥460,885/㎡ | ¥428,113/㎡ |
| 2025Q4 | ¥1,021,796/㎡ | ¥580,610/㎡ | ¥452,694/㎡ | ¥420,393/㎡ |
| 2025Q3 | ¥992,951/㎡ | ¥573,477/㎡ | ¥446,006/㎡ | ¥413,537/㎡ |
| 2025Q2 | ¥966,900/㎡ | ¥567,924/㎡ | ¥441,101/㎡ | ¥408,423/㎡ |
| 2025Q1 | ¥946,840/㎡ | ¥563,358/㎡ | ¥433,914/㎡ | ¥406,664/㎡ |
| 2024Q4 | ¥914,787/㎡ | ¥553,821/㎡ | ¥428,893/㎡ | ¥400,221/㎡ |
| 2024Q3 | ¥901,653/㎡ | ¥548,924/㎡ | ¥425,524/㎡ | ¥395,222/㎡ |
| 2024Q2 | ¥883,705/㎡ | ¥545,184/㎡ | ¥421,226/㎡ | ¥391,816/㎡ |
| 2024Q1 | ¥863,684/㎡ | ¥542,698/㎡ | ¥422,393/㎡ | ¥388,225/㎡ |
| 2023Q4 | ¥839,586/㎡ | ¥531,341/㎡ | ¥416,849/㎡ | ¥382,858/㎡ |
| 2023Q3 | ¥825,855/㎡ | ¥525,771/㎡ | ¥415,567/㎡ | ¥381,212/㎡ |
| 2023Q2 | ¥818,690/㎡ | ¥521,314/㎡ | ¥413,048/㎡ | ¥374,705/㎡ |
| 2023Q1 | ¥813,781/㎡ | ¥518,404/㎡ | ¥411,808/㎡ | ¥371,254/㎡ |
| 2022Q4 | ¥793,754/㎡ | ¥507,227/㎡ | ¥403,414/㎡ | ¥361,472/㎡ |
| 2022Q3 | ¥782,938/㎡ | ¥501,769/㎡ | ¥398,684/㎡ | ¥354,977/㎡ |
| 2022Q2 | ¥775,960/㎡ | ¥494,677/㎡ | ¥391,095/㎡ | ¥349,864/㎡ |
| 2022Q1 | ¥764,609/㎡ | ¥483,925/㎡ | ¥379,740/㎡ | ¥342,456/㎡ |
| 2021Q4 | ¥740,961/㎡ | ¥467,000/㎡ | ¥368,679/㎡ | ¥328,273/㎡ |
| 2021Q3 | ¥727,184/㎡ | ¥454,988/㎡ | ¥357,105/㎡ | ¥319,248/㎡ |
| 2021Q2 | ¥715,376/㎡ | ¥444,875/㎡ | ¥346,881/㎡ | ¥312,079/㎡ |
| 2021Q1 | ¥704,687/㎡ | ¥439,563/㎡ | ¥338,746/㎡ | ¥305,033/㎡ |
| 2020Q4 | ¥703,903/㎡ | ¥434,548/㎡ | ¥332,318/㎡ | ¥299,738/㎡ |
| 2020Q3 | ¥697,110/㎡ | ¥428,433/㎡ | ¥327,651/㎡ | ¥295,769/㎡ |
| 2020Q2 | ¥694,951/㎡ | ¥426,704/㎡ | ¥325,097/㎡ | ¥291,974/㎡ |
| 2020Q1 | ¥690,691/㎡ | ¥425,892/㎡ | ¥322,047/㎡ | ¥289,125/㎡ |
| 2019Q4 | ¥673,928/㎡ | ¥420,375/㎡ | ¥316,000/㎡ | ¥284,729/㎡ |
| 2019Q3 | ¥667,525/㎡ | ¥414,939/㎡ | ¥313,388/㎡ | ¥281,386/㎡ |
| 2019Q2 | ¥663,292/㎡ | ¥412,320/㎡ | ¥311,468/㎡ | ¥278,839/㎡ |
| 2019Q1 | ¥659,582/㎡ | ¥412,124/㎡ | ¥310,665/㎡ | ¥277,741/㎡ |
| 2018Q4 | ¥651,749/㎡ | ¥407,914/㎡ | ¥304,860/㎡ | ¥275,600/㎡ |
| 2018Q3 | ¥646,946/㎡ | ¥405,599/㎡ | ¥301,470/㎡ | ¥272,718/㎡ |
| 2018Q2 | ¥641,877/㎡ | ¥402,852/㎡ | ¥299,417/㎡ | ¥271,537/㎡ |
| 2018Q1 | ¥638,048/㎡ | ¥402,350/㎡ | ¥297,039/㎡ | ¥269,764/㎡ |
| 2017Q4 | ¥627,785/㎡ | ¥398,012/㎡ | ¥293,521/㎡ | ¥265,268/㎡ |
| 2017Q3 | ¥622,024/㎡ | ¥395,127/㎡ | ¥290,585/㎡ | ¥262,846/㎡ |
| 2017Q2 | ¥612,330/㎡ | ¥390,889/㎡ | ¥288,859/㎡ | ¥259,785/㎡ |
| 2017Q1 | ¥610,770/㎡ | ¥386,765/㎡ | ¥285,935/㎡ | ¥256,989/㎡ |
| 2016Q4 | ¥599,554/㎡ | ¥381,951/㎡ | ¥282,157/㎡ | ¥253,332/㎡ |
| 2016Q3 | ¥595,295/㎡ | ¥377,959/㎡ | ¥280,254/㎡ | ¥251,474/㎡ |
| 2016Q2 | ¥591,478/㎡ | ¥376,620/㎡ | ¥278,829/㎡ | ¥250,057/㎡ |
| Prefecture | Latest price per ㎡ | vs. 1 year ago | vs. 5 years ago | vs. 10 years ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | ¥1,059,863 | +11.9% | +50.4% | +79.2% |
| Kanagawa | ¥594,438 | +5.5% | +35.2% | +57.8% |
| Saitama | ¥460,885 | +6.2% | +36.1% | +65.3% |
| Chiba | ¥428,113 | +5.3% | +40.3% | +71.2% |
Seasonal pattern by quarter (reference)
The average, over the same quarter of the past 10 years, of how high or low the quality-adjusted price per ㎡ tends to be in each quarter of the year relative to the surrounding movement (the moving average).
View as table
| Prefecture | Jan–Mar | Apr–Jun | Jul–Sep | Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | +0.37% | +0.03% | -0.21% | -0.36% |
| Kanagawa | +0.39% | -0.03% | -0.22% | -0.17% |
| Saitama | +0.24% | +0.05% | -0.13% | -0.22% |
| Chiba | +0.30% | +0.00% | -0.15% | -0.22% |
The differences are mostly within ±0.5%, very small compared with the annual change (a few percent). Because the model joins adjacent quarters smoothly, they may come out smaller than the actual seasonal differences. This does not mean that “buying in this quarter is a bargain”.
Detached houses (land + building)
Reference property: 100㎡ land, 100㎡ building, 20 years old, 10-min walk to station, wooden, residential zoning
View as table
| Quarter | Tokyo | Kanagawa | Saitama | Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | ¥533,587/㎡ | ¥341,450/㎡ | ¥231,496/㎡ | ¥191,462/㎡ |
| 2025Q4 | ¥522,471/㎡ | ¥338,720/㎡ | ¥230,314/㎡ | ¥190,794/㎡ |
| 2025Q3 | ¥514,208/㎡ | ¥336,958/㎡ | ¥230,127/㎡ | ¥188,179/㎡ |
| 2025Q2 | ¥508,221/㎡ | ¥334,503/㎡ | ¥229,264/㎡ | ¥187,852/㎡ |
| 2025Q1 | ¥502,369/㎡ | ¥332,638/㎡ | ¥228,191/㎡ | ¥186,891/㎡ |
| 2024Q4 | ¥496,122/㎡ | ¥333,630/㎡ | ¥227,798/㎡ | ¥186,790/㎡ |
| 2024Q3 | ¥491,701/㎡ | ¥333,562/㎡ | ¥228,116/㎡ | ¥185,385/㎡ |
| 2024Q2 | ¥489,102/㎡ | ¥333,903/㎡ | ¥227,462/㎡ | ¥185,157/㎡ |
| 2024Q1 | ¥484,765/㎡ | ¥333,847/㎡ | ¥226,895/㎡ | ¥184,770/㎡ |
| 2023Q4 | ¥479,087/㎡ | ¥332,684/㎡ | ¥226,402/㎡ | ¥182,205/㎡ |
| 2023Q3 | ¥477,093/㎡ | ¥332,966/㎡ | ¥227,804/㎡ | ¥181,515/㎡ |
| 2023Q2 | ¥475,318/㎡ | ¥332,573/㎡ | ¥227,729/㎡ | ¥180,787/㎡ |
| 2023Q1 | ¥475,638/㎡ | ¥331,515/㎡ | ¥228,846/㎡ | ¥180,003/㎡ |
| 2022Q4 | ¥470,001/㎡ | ¥326,742/㎡ | ¥226,567/㎡ | ¥177,369/㎡ |
| 2022Q3 | ¥462,904/㎡ | ¥323,391/㎡ | ¥224,014/㎡ | ¥173,635/㎡ |
| 2022Q2 | ¥455,622/㎡ | ¥318,645/㎡ | ¥220,272/㎡ | ¥170,694/㎡ |
| 2022Q1 | ¥447,427/㎡ | ¥311,624/㎡ | ¥216,161/㎡ | ¥166,563/㎡ |
| 2021Q4 | ¥436,574/㎡ | ¥303,643/㎡ | ¥210,849/㎡ | ¥162,494/㎡ |
| 2021Q3 | ¥426,964/㎡ | ¥296,404/㎡ | ¥205,345/㎡ | ¥159,167/㎡ |
| 2021Q2 | ¥416,993/㎡ | ¥290,586/㎡ | ¥201,071/㎡ | ¥155,457/㎡ |
| 2021Q1 | ¥408,572/㎡ | ¥282,978/㎡ | ¥196,874/㎡ | ¥151,471/㎡ |
| 2020Q4 | ¥398,002/㎡ | ¥275,660/㎡ | ¥192,194/㎡ | ¥147,936/㎡ |
| 2020Q3 | ¥392,254/㎡ | ¥270,713/㎡ | ¥189,698/㎡ | ¥145,359/㎡ |
| 2020Q2 | ¥385,488/㎡ | ¥268,448/㎡ | ¥186,572/㎡ | ¥141,979/㎡ |
| 2020Q1 | ¥387,721/㎡ | ¥269,481/㎡ | ¥186,050/㎡ | ¥141,761/㎡ |
| 2019Q4 | ¥387,966/㎡ | ¥268,479/㎡ | ¥186,017/㎡ | ¥141,684/㎡ |
| 2019Q3 | ¥387,639/㎡ | ¥269,894/㎡ | ¥185,662/㎡ | ¥141,539/㎡ |
| 2019Q2 | ¥389,970/㎡ | ¥272,248/㎡ | ¥185,766/㎡ | ¥141,685/㎡ |
| 2019Q1 | ¥388,073/㎡ | ¥273,951/㎡ | ¥185,421/㎡ | ¥141,349/㎡ |
| 2018Q4 | ¥386,965/㎡ | ¥271,721/㎡ | ¥184,931/㎡ | ¥139,962/㎡ |
| 2018Q3 | ¥389,064/㎡ | ¥272,335/㎡ | ¥185,065/㎡ | ¥139,860/㎡ |
| 2018Q2 | ¥389,568/㎡ | ¥273,412/㎡ | ¥184,916/㎡ | ¥139,383/㎡ |
| 2018Q1 | ¥387,807/㎡ | ¥273,503/㎡ | ¥184,656/㎡ | ¥138,581/㎡ |
| 2017Q4 | ¥382,735/㎡ | ¥272,238/㎡ | ¥183,271/㎡ | ¥137,438/㎡ |
| 2017Q3 | ¥380,095/㎡ | ¥271,964/㎡ | ¥182,662/㎡ | ¥137,508/㎡ |
| 2017Q2 | ¥379,727/㎡ | ¥271,014/㎡ | ¥181,968/㎡ | ¥137,339/㎡ |
| 2017Q1 | ¥377,613/㎡ | ¥270,793/㎡ | ¥181,072/㎡ | ¥137,477/㎡ |
| 2016Q4 | ¥374,381/㎡ | ¥269,009/㎡ | ¥179,231/㎡ | ¥136,045/㎡ |
| 2016Q3 | ¥371,330/㎡ | ¥267,526/㎡ | ¥178,523/㎡ | ¥135,351/㎡ |
| 2016Q2 | ¥371,348/㎡ | ¥266,861/㎡ | ¥178,684/㎡ | ¥135,328/㎡ |
| Prefecture | Latest price per ㎡ | vs. 1 year ago | vs. 5 years ago | vs. 10 years ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | ¥533,587 | +6.2% | +30.6% | +43.7% |
| Kanagawa | ¥341,450 | +2.6% | +20.7% | +28.0% |
| Saitama | ¥231,496 | +1.4% | +17.6% | +29.6% |
| Chiba | ¥191,462 | +2.4% | +26.4% | +41.5% |
Seasonal pattern by quarter (reference)
The average, over the same quarter of the past 10 years, of how high or low the quality-adjusted price per ㎡ tends to be in each quarter of the year relative to the surrounding movement (the moving average).
View as table
| Prefecture | Jan–Mar | Apr–Jun | Jul–Sep | Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | +0.19% | +0.02% | -0.13% | -0.16% |
| Kanagawa | +0.19% | +0.08% | -0.10% | -0.18% |
| Saitama | +0.11% | -0.00% | +0.04% | -0.12% |
| Chiba | +0.15% | +0.01% | -0.09% | -0.12% |
The differences are mostly within ±0.5%, very small compared with the annual change (a few percent). Because the model joins adjacent quarters smoothly, they may come out smaller than the actual seasonal differences. This does not mean that “buying in this quarter is a bargain”.
Land
Reference property: 100㎡ land, 10-min walk to station, 4 m road frontage, residential zoning
View as table
| Quarter | Tokyo | Kanagawa | Saitama | Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | ¥486,772/㎡ | ¥232,386/㎡ | ¥126,345/㎡ | ¥83,672/㎡ |
| 2025Q4 | ¥485,985/㎡ | ¥232,578/㎡ | ¥126,631/㎡ | ¥83,877/㎡ |
| 2025Q3 | ¥482,641/㎡ | ¥232,141/㎡ | ¥126,543/㎡ | ¥83,923/㎡ |
| 2025Q2 | ¥478,508/㎡ | ¥231,643/㎡ | ¥126,107/㎡ | ¥83,894/㎡ |
| 2025Q1 | ¥473,117/㎡ | ¥230,676/㎡ | ¥125,775/㎡ | ¥83,362/㎡ |
| 2024Q4 | ¥468,315/㎡ | ¥229,810/㎡ | ¥125,863/㎡ | ¥82,833/㎡ |
| 2024Q3 | ¥460,113/㎡ | ¥229,266/㎡ | ¥126,029/㎡ | ¥82,561/㎡ |
| 2024Q2 | ¥453,893/㎡ | ¥228,574/㎡ | ¥125,961/㎡ | ¥81,940/㎡ |
| 2024Q1 | ¥449,533/㎡ | ¥227,713/㎡ | ¥125,857/㎡ | ¥81,309/㎡ |
| 2023Q4 | ¥446,422/㎡ | ¥226,613/㎡ | ¥125,635/㎡ | ¥80,654/㎡ |
| 2023Q3 | ¥444,907/㎡ | ¥226,353/㎡ | ¥125,553/㎡ | ¥79,840/㎡ |
| 2023Q2 | ¥442,410/㎡ | ¥225,328/㎡ | ¥125,363/㎡ | ¥79,281/㎡ |
| 2023Q1 | ¥437,887/㎡ | ¥222,915/㎡ | ¥124,503/㎡ | ¥78,490/㎡ |
| 2022Q4 | ¥432,869/㎡ | ¥220,820/㎡ | ¥124,088/㎡ | ¥77,319/㎡ |
| 2022Q3 | ¥427,521/㎡ | ¥218,440/㎡ | ¥123,500/㎡ | ¥76,445/㎡ |
| 2022Q2 | ¥420,649/㎡ | ¥215,591/㎡ | ¥122,590/㎡ | ¥75,354/㎡ |
| 2022Q1 | ¥413,930/㎡ | ¥211,234/㎡ | ¥120,908/㎡ | ¥73,803/㎡ |
| 2021Q4 | ¥405,820/㎡ | ¥207,597/㎡ | ¥119,613/㎡ | ¥72,155/㎡ |
| 2021Q3 | ¥397,414/㎡ | ¥205,065/㎡ | ¥118,327/㎡ | ¥71,134/㎡ |
| 2021Q2 | ¥390,332/㎡ | ¥201,748/㎡ | ¥116,921/㎡ | ¥70,252/㎡ |
| 2021Q1 | ¥382,153/㎡ | ¥198,441/㎡ | ¥115,683/㎡ | ¥69,197/㎡ |
| 2020Q4 | ¥375,306/㎡ | ¥195,487/㎡ | ¥114,282/㎡ | ¥68,097/㎡ |
| 2020Q3 | ¥370,713/㎡ | ¥193,810/㎡ | ¥113,184/㎡ | ¥67,415/㎡ |
| 2020Q2 | ¥367,380/㎡ | ¥192,762/㎡ | ¥112,198/㎡ | ¥66,642/㎡ |
| 2020Q1 | ¥364,337/㎡ | ¥192,345/㎡ | ¥111,599/㎡ | ¥65,905/㎡ |
| 2019Q4 | ¥361,877/㎡ | ¥191,880/㎡ | ¥110,871/㎡ | ¥65,394/㎡ |
| 2019Q3 | ¥361,213/㎡ | ¥191,728/㎡ | ¥110,671/㎡ | ¥65,063/㎡ |
| 2019Q2 | ¥361,182/㎡ | ¥191,686/㎡ | ¥111,106/㎡ | ¥64,973/㎡ |
| 2019Q1 | ¥360,900/㎡ | ¥191,648/㎡ | ¥111,359/㎡ | ¥64,910/㎡ |
| 2018Q4 | ¥361,131/㎡ | ¥191,800/㎡ | ¥111,471/㎡ | ¥64,813/㎡ |
| 2018Q3 | ¥360,193/㎡ | ¥192,437/㎡ | ¥111,644/㎡ | ¥64,904/㎡ |
| 2018Q2 | ¥360,415/㎡ | ¥192,728/㎡ | ¥111,651/㎡ | ¥64,875/㎡ |
| 2018Q1 | ¥359,944/㎡ | ¥192,030/㎡ | ¥111,389/㎡ | ¥65,019/㎡ |
| 2017Q4 | ¥358,600/㎡ | ¥191,301/㎡ | ¥111,169/㎡ | ¥64,857/㎡ |
| 2017Q3 | ¥357,338/㎡ | ¥191,048/㎡ | ¥111,042/㎡ | ¥64,858/㎡ |
| 2017Q2 | ¥357,042/㎡ | ¥190,506/㎡ | ¥110,962/㎡ | ¥64,637/㎡ |
| 2017Q1 | ¥354,738/㎡ | ¥189,550/㎡ | ¥110,883/㎡ | ¥64,344/㎡ |
| 2016Q4 | ¥353,727/㎡ | ¥188,789/㎡ | ¥110,480/㎡ | ¥64,268/㎡ |
| 2016Q3 | ¥350,722/㎡ | ¥188,511/㎡ | ¥110,070/㎡ | ¥64,216/㎡ |
| 2016Q2 | ¥349,616/㎡ | ¥188,124/㎡ | ¥109,804/㎡ | ¥64,382/㎡ |
| Prefecture | Latest price per ㎡ | vs. 1 year ago | vs. 5 years ago | vs. 10 years ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | ¥486,772 | +2.9% | +27.4% | +39.2% |
| Kanagawa | ¥232,386 | +0.7% | +17.1% | +23.5% |
| Saitama | ¥126,345 | +0.5% | +9.2% | +15.1% |
| Chiba | ¥83,672 | +0.4% | +20.9% | +30.0% |
Seasonal pattern by quarter (reference)
The average, over the same quarter of the past 10 years, of how high or low the quality-adjusted price per ㎡ tends to be in each quarter of the year relative to the surrounding movement (the moving average).
View as table
| Prefecture | Jan–Mar | Apr–Jun | Jul–Sep | Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | -0.01% | +0.06% | -0.03% | -0.01% |
| Kanagawa | -0.04% | +0.12% | +0.06% | -0.13% |
| Saitama | -0.01% | +0.06% | +0.03% | -0.05% |
| Chiba | +0.02% | +0.11% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
The differences are mostly within ±0.5%, very small compared with the annual change (a few percent). Because the model joins adjacent quarters smoothly, they may come out smaller than the actual seasonal differences. This does not mean that “buying in this quarter is a bargain”.
Compare municipalities
Choose a prefecture and a type, then two areas (municipalities or the whole prefecture), and the quality-adjusted price-per-㎡ trends are drawn together. With “Index”, you can compare movements with the first quarter in which both are available set to 100 (this makes it easier to compare areas at different levels). You can choose only municipalities with 30 or more transactions that have their own separately fitted model.
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| Quarter |
|---|
| – |
How to read
- Why quality adjustment? The trend of the median is distorted by changes in the mix: it rises in quarters when many large properties close to new were traded, and falls in quarters with many old, small ones. Holding building age, area and distance to the station constant shows how the price of properties with the same conditions moved.
- Each prefecture line combines the municipal estimates weighted by the number of transactions. It is better suited to comparing movements (rates of change) than levels.
- The latest quarter may be revised later because the publication of transactions is delayed.
Source: MLIT Real Estate Information Library. Prepared by 東洋インターネットサービス株式会社 based on “Real Estate Transaction-Price Information” (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism). These are values aggregated and adjusted from actual-transaction data that the government processed so that individual properties cannot be identified; they were not produced by the government. Transactions with special circumstances (about 5%) are excluded.