What % of market price do auction properties sell for?
We tallied 6,844 winning bids in court auctions in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba (fiscal years 2023–2026) against the estimated market price of a property of the same area and building age, and against the court’s . 100% means the market level; 70% means the property sold for 70% of the market price.
- By building age
- Distribution
- By number of bidders
- By municipality
- Detached houses (reference)
- How to read
The older the condominium, the lower it sells. The median ratio to market price is 83% for age 20 years or less, 71% for age 21–35 years and 62% for age 36 years or more.
The estimated market price used as the benchmark already takes area and building age into account. The difference therefore means that “older properties are discounted more than the market model explains”. The reasons (occupancy, management condition, repair costs, financing constraints and so on) cannot be confirmed from this data.
Condominiums by prefecture and building-age band
The dot is the median and the line is the interquartile range (the middle half of winning bids). Each prefecture has three rows, one per building-age band; the further right a dot is (the closer to 100%), the closer to the market price the property sold.
View as table
| Prefecture | All | Age 20 yrs or less | Age 21–35 yrs | Age 36 yrs or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 81% (65~97%, n=1213) | 84% (73~96%, n=454) | 84% (63~102%, n=362) | 71% (57~92%, n=397) |
| Kanagawa | 67% (48~89%, n=915) | 86% (71~98%, n=180) | 68% (50~88%, n=374) | 57% (37~79%, n=361) |
| Saitama | 63% (45~82%, n=460) | 73% (63~93%, n=80) | 63% (47~81%, n=214) | 52% (32~74%, n=166) |
| Chiba | 67% (45~85%, n=392) | 77% (63~87%, n=68) | 68% (50~88%, n=176) | 54% (35~77%, n=148) |
| Prefecture | All | Age 20 yrs or less | Age 21–35 yrs | Age 36 yrs or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 138% (120~156%, n=1213) | 142% (129~157%, n=454) | 136% (117~156%, n=362) | 130% (109~154%, n=397) |
| Kanagawa | 131% (108~157%, n=915) | 145% (132~169%, n=180) | 132% (111~161%, n=374) | 119% (92~143%, n=361) |
| Saitama | 126% (100~152%, n=460) | 136% (115~155%, n=80) | 124% (101~151%, n=214) | 118% (88~158%, n=166) |
| Chiba | 132% (111~160%, n=392) | 140% (125~154%, n=68) | 133% (115~157%, n=176) | 126% (100~166%, n=148) |
Distribution of the winning-bid ratio (by building-age band)
Bar charts show the spread of winning bids that the median alone does not reveal. The vertical axis is the share of the band’s winning bids that fell in each range (divided by the band’s sample size), so shapes can be compared even between bands with different counts. The solid vertical line is 100% and the dashed line is the median.
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| Range | Age 20 yrs or less (n=782) | Age 21–35 yrs (n=1126) | Age 36 yrs or more (n=1072) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 10–20% | 0 | 14 | 49 |
| 20–30% | 6 | 36 | 79 |
| 30–40% | 12 | 74 | 106 |
| 40–50% | 15 | 120 | 115 |
| 50–60% | 56 | 140 | 140 |
| 60–70% | 95 | 151 | 146 |
| 70–80% | 159 | 142 | 111 |
| 80–90% | 162 | 119 | 82 |
| 90–100% | 117 | 115 | 80 |
| 100–110% | 72 | 81 | 49 |
| 110–120% | 40 | 43 | 29 |
| 120–130% | 25 | 28 | 17 |
| 130–140% | 7 | 23 | 22 |
| 140–150% | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 150–160% | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 160–170% | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 170–180% | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 180–190% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 190% or more | 1 | 6 | 12 |
View as table
| Range | Age 20 yrs or less (n=782) | Age 21–35 yrs (n=1126) | Age 36 yrs or more (n=1072) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80–90% | 8 | 114 | 196 |
| 90–100% | 9 | 47 | 56 |
| 100–110% | 28 | 101 | 127 |
| 110–120% | 61 | 122 | 107 |
| 120–130% | 112 | 142 | 109 |
| 130–140% | 139 | 139 | 107 |
| 140–150% | 138 | 110 | 79 |
| 150–160% | 98 | 100 | 78 |
| 160–170% | 70 | 68 | 52 |
| 170–180% | 47 | 56 | 30 |
| 180–190% | 20 | 33 | 16 |
| 190–200% | 20 | 24 | 20 |
| 200–210% | 8 | 17 | 10 |
| 210–220% | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| 220–230% | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| 230–240% | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 240–250% | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 250–260% | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 260–270% | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 270–280% | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 280–290% | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 290% or more | 3 | 11 | 39 |
The end bars include values outside the range. Building-age bands with fewer than 10 samples are not shown.
Number of bidders and winning bids
The more bidders a property attracts, the further the winning bid rises above the reference sale price. The number of bidders is known only after the result, and bids concentrate on popular properties whose prices also rise, so this is not causal. The tally covers 94 cases, a small sample that will grow.
| Bidders | Sample (n) | Winning bid ÷ reference sale price |
|---|---|---|
| 1–2 bidders | 15 | 102% (90–138%) |
| 3–5 bidders | 27 | 123% (107–148%) |
| 6–9 bidders | 19 | 142% (122–186%) |
| 10 or more bidders | 33 | 173% (141–193%) |
Condominiums by municipality
Only municipalities with 30 or more samples are shown. Where the sample is small, chance has a large effect, so we do not publish them. Municipality names are shown as a romanized form (the original Japanese name appears in the table).
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| Municipality | Sample (n) | Ratio to market (median, interquartile range) | Ratio to reference price (median) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kanagawa Kawasaki-shi Miyamae-ku (川崎市宮前区) | 40 | 56% (45~67%) | 124% |
| Kanagawa Yokosuka-shi (横須賀市) | 55 | 59% (40~73%) | 118% |
| Saitama Kawaguchi-shi (川口市) | 64 | 64% (45~87%) | 147% |
| Chiba Matsudo-shi (松戸市) | 40 | 67% (52~80%) | 146% |
| Chiba Ichikawa-shi (市川市) | 31 | 68% (55~82%) | 138% |
| Chiba Funabashi-shi (船橋市) | 77 | 69% (51~93%) | 127% |
| Kanagawa Sagamihara-shi Chuo-ku (相模原市中央区) | 30 | 72% (50~94%) | 133% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Tsurumi-ku (横浜市鶴見区) | 40 | 72% (53~89%) | 132% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Kohoku-ku (横浜市港北区) | 42 | 72% (46~91%) | 139% |
| Tokyo Machida-shi (町田市) | 31 | 75% (57~81%) | 139% |
| Tokyo Katsushika-ku (葛飾区) | 56 | 76% (61~88%) | 133% |
| Kanagawa Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku (川崎市川崎区) | 40 | 77% (66~87%) | 138% |
| Tokyo Adachi-ku (足立区) | 124 | 77% (66~93%) | 128% |
| Chiba Chiba-shi Chuo-ku (千葉市中央区) | 30 | 78% (66~91%) | 128% |
| Tokyo Setagaya-ku (世田谷区) | 54 | 79% (60~93%) | 143% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Kanagawa-ku (横浜市神奈川区) | 36 | 80% (54~102%) | 152% |
| Tokyo Koto-ku (江東区) | 51 | 80% (67~91%) | 155% |
| Tokyo Sumida-ku (墨田区) | 59 | 80% (69~92%) | 148% |
| Tokyo Ota-ku (大田区) | 83 | 81% (69~95%) | 140% |
| Tokyo Hachioji-shi (八王子市) | 58 | 82% (62~106%) | 132% |
| Tokyo Kita-ku (北区) | 32 | 83% (72~92%) | 153% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Minami-ku (横浜市南区) | 69 | 84% (58~99%) | 142% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Isogo-ku (横浜市磯子区) | 40 | 84% (59~105%) | 134% |
| Kanagawa Yamato-shi (大和市) | 31 | 85% (75~100%) | 123% |
| Tokyo Taito-ku (台東区) | 39 | 85% (74~101%) | 152% |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Naka-ku (横浜市中区) | 36 | 85% (55~96%) | 162% |
| Tokyo Nerima-ku (練馬区) | 42 | 86% (77~101%) | 132% |
| Tokyo Toshima-ku (豊島区) | 30 | 87% (68~106%) | 155% |
| Tokyo Itabashi-ku (板橋区) | 92 | 87% (70~99%) | 131% |
| Tokyo Suginami-ku (杉並区) | 36 | 88% (66~97%) | 135% |
| Tokyo Shinjuku-ku (新宿区) | 34 | 90% (73~113%) | 146% |
| Tokyo Minato-ku (港区) | 39 | 99% (83~121%) | 159% |
- under 72%
- 72% to 77%
- 77% to 82%
- 82% to 85%
- 85% or more
- No data
View as table
| Municipality | Winning bid ÷ market price (median) | Winning bids |
|---|---|---|
| Kanagawa Kawasaki-shi Miyamae-ku (川崎市宮前区) | 56% | 40 |
| Kanagawa Yokosuka-shi (横須賀市) | 59% | 55 |
| Saitama Kawaguchi-shi (川口市) | 64% | 64 |
| Chiba Matsudo-shi (松戸市) | 67% | 40 |
| Chiba Ichikawa-shi (市川市) | 68% | 31 |
| Chiba Funabashi-shi (船橋市) | 69% | 77 |
| Kanagawa Sagamihara-shi Chuo-ku (相模原市中央区) | 72% | 30 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Tsurumi-ku (横浜市鶴見区) | 72% | 40 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Kohoku-ku (横浜市港北区) | 72% | 42 |
| Tokyo Machida-shi (町田市) | 75% | 31 |
| Tokyo Katsushika-ku (葛飾区) | 76% | 56 |
| Kanagawa Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku (川崎市川崎区) | 77% | 40 |
| Tokyo Adachi-ku (足立区) | 77% | 124 |
| Chiba Chiba-shi Chuo-ku (千葉市中央区) | 78% | 30 |
| Tokyo Setagaya-ku (世田谷区) | 79% | 54 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Kanagawa-ku (横浜市神奈川区) | 80% | 36 |
| Tokyo Koto-ku (江東区) | 80% | 51 |
| Tokyo Sumida-ku (墨田区) | 80% | 59 |
| Tokyo Ota-ku (大田区) | 81% | 83 |
| Tokyo Hachioji-shi (八王子市) | 82% | 58 |
| Tokyo Kita-ku (北区) | 83% | 32 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Minami-ku (横浜市南区) | 84% | 69 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Isogo-ku (横浜市磯子区) | 84% | 40 |
| Kanagawa Yamato-shi (大和市) | 85% | 31 |
| Tokyo Taito-ku (台東区) | 85% | 39 |
| Kanagawa Yokohama-shi Naka-ku (横浜市中区) | 85% | 36 |
| Tokyo Nerima-ku (練馬区) | 86% | 42 |
| Tokyo Toshima-ku (豊島区) | 87% | 30 |
| Tokyo Itabashi-ku (板橋区) | 87% | 92 |
| Tokyo Suginami-ku (杉並区) | 88% | 36 |
| Tokyo Shinjuku-ku (新宿区) | 90% | 34 |
| Tokyo Minato-ku (港区) | 99% | 39 |
Only municipalities with 30 or more winning bids are colored. Gray areas are not shown because the sample is small. The color classes are quantiles of the municipalities shown. The boundaries are a simplified version of the National Land Numerical Information (Administrative Area data) (MLIT) and do not match the actual administrative boundaries.
Detached houses (reference)
The past winning-bid data have no building area, so we estimated the market price from land area and building age only. When checked against winning bids whose building area is known, the median does not shift much, but the error for each case is large. Please read it only as an aggregate.
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| Prefecture | All | Age 20 yrs or less | Age 21–35 yrs | Age 36 yrs or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 70% (48~93%, n=721) | 68% (53~85%, n=329) | 68% (41~95%, n=182) | 75% (42~130%, n=210) |
| Kanagawa | 62% (43~84%, n=915) | 63% (50~79%, n=425) | 57% (39~82%, n=257) | 59% (34~103%, n=233) |
| Saitama | 56% (39~73%, n=1249) | 60% (46~72%, n=644) | 49% (34~70%, n=346) | 49% (28~89%, n=259) |
| Chiba | 62% (42~85%, n=979) | 65% (49~83%, n=445) | 58% (39~81%, n=296) | 59% (34~104%, n=238) |
| Prefecture | All | Age 20 yrs or less | Age 21–35 yrs | Age 36 yrs or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 134% (114~157%, n=721) | 132% (116~148%, n=329) | 137% (112~163%, n=182) | 138% (107~170%, n=210) |
| Kanagawa | 152% (127~179%, n=915) | 156% (138~176%, n=425) | 158% (125~185%, n=257) | 132% (101~177%, n=233) |
| Saitama | 136% (113~162%, n=1249) | 139% (120~159%, n=644) | 145% (116~172%, n=346) | 118% (90~150%, n=259) |
| Chiba | 158% (129~204%, n=979) | 154% (135~190%, n=445) | 181% (146~236%, n=296) | 140% (107~188%, n=238) |
View as table
| Range | Age 20 yrs or less (n=1843) | Age 21–35 yrs (n=1081) | Age 36 yrs or more (n=940) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 10–20% | 28 | 65 | 72 |
| 20–30% | 73 | 99 | 108 |
| 30–40% | 145 | 131 | 107 |
| 40–50% | 256 | 148 | 80 |
| 50–60% | 307 | 137 | 78 |
| 60–70% | 342 | 122 | 64 |
| 70–80% | 260 | 100 | 58 |
| 80–90% | 171 | 73 | 62 |
| 90–100% | 95 | 44 | 33 |
| 100–110% | 63 | 34 | 45 |
| 110–120% | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 120–130% | 14 | 17 | 27 |
| 130–140% | 13 | 8 | 23 |
| 140–150% | 13 | 3 | 9 |
| 150–160% | 5 | 9 | 15 |
| 160–170% | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| 170–180% | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 180–190% | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 190% or more | 23 | 49 | 81 |
How to read, and cautions
- The ratio to market price is the winning bid divided by “the estimated market price of a property of the same area and building age in the same municipality and type”. The market price is a statistical estimate and does not reflect occupancy, management condition, floor or orientation. Auction properties often have unfavorable conditions, so a low ratio is not a pure discount.
- The ratio to the reference sale price is the observed winning bid divided by the reference sale price set by the court. A value above 1 (100% or more) means the bidding pushed the price above the reference sale price.
- We do not publish a yearly trend. The source data have only the fiscal year (Reiwa N), and the mix of building age and area among properties sold changes every year, so connecting yearly values would be misleading.
- Land (vacant lots) is excluded because many are special cases such as private roads or irregular parcels, and the market model does not fit them.
Source: aggregated from the published sale results on the courts’ real estate auction information site (BIT). Market prices are estimated by 東洋インターネットサービス株式会社 based on the MLIT Real Estate Information Library “Real Estate Transaction-Price Information”. This is an unofficial tally, unrelated to the courts or the government.